Nothing surprises me anymore!
Some of you know Conrad Lowe - you know the church consultant many have come to love, adore and trust. I know Him personally. He has given me good advice when I was consumed in the institutional way of doing church.
Here are some predictions from Conrad Lowe regarding the church. Brace yourself, I am taking Him on. Let me summarize a recent consultation some friends of mine had with Conrad.
Regarding the future trends in the future of the American church, Conrad speaks.
1. Cited from Barna, 50% of all churches in America will close in the next 20 years in large part because of leadership shortages.
2. Satellite churches from our larger churches will dominate the landscape of America.
3. Children's ministries must be better for up and coming generations.
4. The 2o something's are the most spiritual generation in our history and they will come back to church if the church has better children's programming.
5. We must engage women in senior pastor leadership to survive leadership shortages.
6 Church planting as we know it today will no longer be effective.
Oh Goody, I get to challenge Conrad's thinking...
1. Conrad, the institutional ineffective non-missional church will close her doors not because of leadership shortages but because we have lost our way. While many struggle for another method many leaders will opt for a New Testament wineshin that chucks the baggage of retraint and control. As many churches close (they need to) many many disciple-making disciples or Great Commissional Christ followers will emerge. God will birth a Church that really becomes incarnational in the world and not held up on the inside as see today.
2. Conrad, satellite churches are in the forecast but I still believ the season will be short-lived. A satellite is nothing more than ALL of the SAME! All if the same is dying a painful death. As a last ditch effort to save the institution some will opt for a satellite service by stunning Steve -but it will be just another disquise to keep doing the same old thing. In case you didn't notice the attraction model with a stunning Steve preacher does not work to fix the missionional problems. Fewer and fewer will be attracted to the best show on Sunday. You have have it right - but it is still wrong.
3. Conrad, the future will include better children's discipleship but it won't be done like it is today nor will it occur in our present entertainment, state of the art facilities to attract kids. The future children's programming will be done by the parents themselves. We have discovered that when we as parents turn our children over to teachers at church we have relinquished our spiritual leadership to that teacher. Our children shift from their parents being the spiritual leader to a Sunday School teacher. This is why we are losing our kids. We don't need better programs we need parents who become better disciples of their children.
4. Conrad, you need to talk with the 20 something's and younger. You are not even close. It is estimated that nearly 2/3rds of this age group has disconnected or are disconnecting from Americanized Christianity. They long for intimacy, transparency, authenticity, and they are turned off by the polish and performance of the program driven church. They are tired of going to church but they long to be the Church in the world. You are right to say that this is th emost spiritual generation in our history - and they long for Jesus! (I didn't say church!)
5. Truth is -there is and there isn't a shortage of leaders. As noted the leadership pool is shrinking in the institutional church. On the other hand the leadership pool potential is rising for the Great Commissional Church. I'm finding that leaders are leaving the "institution" because they are disillusioned and also refuse to serve a sinking ship of control, manipulation and ineffective structures of consumerism. Men and women can make disciples who themselves will make disciples. This is for everyone.
6. Conrad, you are right. Only as we truly obey the purposes of the Great Commission with supremacy do we have any hope at all. Jesus tells us to make discipes who make disciples. Our job is to make disciples. It is God's job to build His Church. If we will get the disciple-making right then Jesus will give birth to and build His Church. Present church planting models and training actually goes against becoming Great Commissional and Holy Spirit led. I fear that our present church planting training is all about what man can do and has little to do with what God can do.
Perhaps Conrad is just trying to keep the institutional church alive. Truth is, we cannot stop the downward spiral. As we believers finally engage the purposes of the Great Commission with supremacy we will see geometric (not exponential) progression growth which is unlimited.
We don't need new scheming for some magic formula or program or style or new thing to save the church. All we really need to do is become the Church by living incarnationally in the world. The unreached largely does not value "going" to church but they are often hungry for the Lord of the Church - and they will largely be impacted by the Church that is released in the world and who lives like Jesus before them.
posted by Bob Carder @ 10:37 PM
7 comments
7 Comments:
I do not know who Conrad is but this I do believe.
1. The leadership shortage is in the church today. The leaders of the current churches are not raising up the next generation of leaders. God has not quit making leaders. Why are they not raising them up? Raising up “Leaders” requires us to be willing to let them lead. My experience has been that the current state of the church leadership is one of control and fear. To raise up new leaders would take courage and force them to release leaders to follow God not man. Pastors would need to stand up to controlling Elder boards and risk their jobs for what is right. The current church leadership in many cases seeks to raise up sub-leaders. These are leaders that will follow them. If our current leaders were Biblical Leaders the church would work together with each other, release people for ministry, and teach Christians personal spiritual disciplines and their responsibility to fulfill the Great Commission, and the leaders would be teaching the next generation to do this in mentoring relationships. All of this would be done without regard for income or attendance and I do not see this happening.
2. I agree with this statement – they will dominate for a period. We see it all around us. Wealthy churches forcing the start of new locations and perpetuating the same dying thing. It will not stop until the transfer growth they experience has no place else to go. Then the landscape will change.
3. I agree with this statement but I may not agree with what constitutes better. Children’s ministry must refocus on teaching parents to raise their kids.
4. Of all the 20 something’s I work with this is not even on their radar. The last thing they want is better “programming” As one told me just yesterday “Give me authenticity and I will be there.”. If Conrad reads this, I hope he goes to my BLOG and reads the two poems I posted from this generation. A side question to ask “Why do we want them back in the dying institution we call church?”.
5. This does not fix the real problem.
6 Church planting, as we know it today has not been effective for some time. The statistics do not lie. Between 1990 –2000, according to the US census, 100% of all counties in America had a decrease in the percentage of churched people. No one is keeping pace with the population growth.
The problem with forecasting is a matter of perspective. We take a given set of circumstances and try to see where the current path leads under those circumstances. The problem is when variables sneak in and mess up the whole system. These variables can include, in this situation, some of the following.
1. The leaders in the current church that are being held back by the programming, lay leaders, leaving the church in droves to be released into missional ministry. This will destroy the multi-campus ministry approach that is heavily dependent on these people to do the “work”
2. 20 something’s finding their place in alternative church settings and embracing their responsibility to pastor their own children. This will eliminate the attraction of “better programmed” children’s ministry and to that I say Praise God.
3. Church planting taking on a different form that becomes an explosive movement of God that looks nothing like the current church model – this is the one to watch out for if you are looking to fix the existing church model through Conrad’s suggestions.
If I can be so bold as to give Conrad advice, and I will be. There is an old adage in business that says “ it’s not how quickly you learn of the good news, it’s how quickly you learn of the bad news.” There is a stream of emerging church movements that can greatly effect the modern church. Don’t dismiss them but rather learn about them and add them to the formula. Even the ones that do not have staying power will have lasting impact on shaping the church.
P Terry,
You stinker - I mean thinker you....
How do you think this well so early in the morning?
While there is a leadership shortage in the "institution" for the reasons you have stated, there is no shortage of leadership ready to be trained and released which you have found to be true.
It may also be good (in the end) that the "church" has failed or is is failing to raise up their own leaders! We don't need anymore leaders to be the same-o and do the same-o who look like the same-o's and then try new same-o's to attract other same-o's.
Bob, have you been stealing from Pope John Paul II? Listen to this!
You:
"We don't need new scheming for some magic formula or program or style or new thing to save the church. All we really need to do is become the Church by living incarnationally in the world."
Pope JPII:
"We are certainly not seduced by the naïve expectation that, faced with the challenges of our time, we shall find some magic formula. No, we shall not be saved by a formula but by a Person, and the assurance which he gives us: I am with you!" (NMI 29)
No magic forumla, just bringing Jesus' presence to the world! Amen! Awesome!
Slatts - many give lip service to the idea but few are ready to give up their positions of power and empower people to do it. Case in point was no exception.
I cannot say anything to contradict you Terry, as the Pope's life does so for me. It takes a strong dose of anti-Catholicism to judge a man like Karol Wojtyla. Maybe you should check that out?
It's amazing how we disregard information given from a source other than our own. Truly, the Barna information could be misleading. The rebuttal could also be misleading. As a minister traveling around this nation, I have seen both sides of this issue being true. Maybe, as a whole, we ministers and leaders should take in the information and pray, discern, HEAR FROM GOD, and then speak.
Paul, can you be more specific on who and what you are addressing. I do agree with your final statements.
However, the trends in America and our failure to stop the downward trend is alarming and must be addressed.
After 24+ years in senior pastorates I find Conrad's statements very damaging if followed. He still hasn't addressed the real problem. I did pray about this and that's why I am here.
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